Beware the risks in a working hypothesis - Moving from a topic to a question to a working hypothesis - Part I. Research and writing: from planning to production

A manual for writers of research papers, theses, and dissertations, 7th edition - Kate L. Turabian 2007

Beware the risks in a working hypothesis
Moving from a topic to a question to a working hypothesis
Part I. Research and writing: from planning to production

It is a bad idea to settle on a final answer too soon. But many new researchers and some experienced ones are afraid to consider any working hypothesis early in their project, even one they hold lightly, because they fear it might bias their thinking. There is some risk of that, but a working hypothesis need not close your mind to a better one. Even the most objective scientist devises an experiment to test for just a few predicted outcomes, often just one. In fact, researchers who don't state a hypothesis usually have one in mind, but don't want to seem publicly committed to it, lest it turn out wrong.

A working hypothesis is a risk only if it blinds you to a better one or if you can't give it up when the evidence says you should. So as in all relationships, don't fall too hard for your first hypothesis: the more you like it, the less easily you'll see its flaws. Despite that risk, it's better to start with a flawed hypothesis than with none at all.