A manual for writers of research papers, theses, and dissertations, Ninth edition - Kate L. Turabian 2018

Propose a working hypothesis
Defining a project: topic, question, problem, working hypothesis
Research and writing

Before you get deep into your project, try one more step. It is one that some beginners resist but that experienced researchers usually attempt. Once you have a question, imagine some plausible answers, no matter how sketchy or speculative. At this stage, don’t worry whether they’re right. That comes later.

For example, suppose you ask, Why do some religions use masks in ceremonies while others don’t? You might speculate:

✵ Maybe cultures with many spirits need masks to distinguish them.

✵ Maybe masks are common in cultures that mix religion and medicine.

✵ Maybe religions originating in the Middle East were influenced by the Jewish prohibition against idolatry.

Even a general answer can suggest something worth studying:

✵ Maybe it has to do with the role of masks in nonreligious areas of a culture.

Try to imagine at least one plausible answer, no matter how tentative or speculative. If one answer seems promising, call it your working hypothesis and use it to guide your research. You can, of course, start gathering data with no more than a question to guide you, but even a tentative working hypothesis will help you think about the kind of data you’ll need as evidence to support it: numbers? quotations? observations? images? historical facts? In fact, until you have a hypothesis, you can’t know whether any data you collect are relevant to your project.

If you can’t imagine any working hypotheses, reconsider your question. You may even decide to start over with a new topic. That costs time in the short run, but it may save you from a failed project. Under no circumstances should you put off thinking about a hypothesis until you begin drafting your paper or, worse, until you’ve almost finished it. You might not settle on the best answer to your question until you’re well into writing your paper, for writing is an act of discovery. But you can’t wait until that last draft to start thinking about some answer.

2.3.1 Beware the Risks in a Working Hypothesis

Don’t settle on a final answer too soon: working hypotheses are meant to change. But many new researchers and some experienced ones are afraid to consider any working hypothesis early in their project, even one they hold lightly, because they fear it might bias their thinking. There is some risk of that, but a working hypothesis need not close your mind to a better one. Even the most objective scientist devises an experiment to test for just a few predicted outcomes, often just one. A working hypothesis is a risk only if it blinds you to a better one or if you can’t give it up when the evidence says you should. So as in all relationships, don’t fall too hard for your first hypothesis: the more you like it, the less easily you’ll see its flaws. Despite that risk, it’s better to start with a flawed hypothesis than with none at all.

2.3.2 If You Can’t Find an Answer, Argue for Your Question

We have focused so much on questions that you might think your project fails if you can’t answer yours. Not so. Much important research explains why a question no one has yet asked should be asked: Do turtles dream? Why is yawning contagious? Papers addressing such questions don’t argue for answers; they explain why the question is important and what a good answer might look like.

Or perhaps you find that someone has answered your question, but incompletely or even—if you’re lucky—incorrectly. If you can’t find the right answer, you still help your research community by showing that a widely accepted one is wrong. You can even organize your paper around a working hypothesis you abandon. If after lots of research, you can’t confirm it, you can explain why that answer seemed reasonable at the time but turned out to be wrong and so isn’t worth the time of other researchers. That in itself can be a valuable contribution to the conversation on your topic. (See 10.1.1—10.1.2 for how to use an apparently good idea that turns out to be wrong.)

Only by asking question after question will you develop the critical imagination you need to excel at research. Experienced researchers know there are few, if any, final answers, because there are no final questions. They know that it’s as important to ask a new question as it is to answer an old one, and that one day their new question will become old and yield to a newer researcher’s still newer one. That’s how the conversations of research communities progress.